Boeing Company (BA): Lowering Estimates Ahead Of The CY4Q Earnings Update

By Chris D. Olin Published on January 23, 2022 at 2:03 AM

We are lowering estimates on The Boeing Company (BA) ahead of the 4Q21 earnings release scheduled for Wednesday, January 26, focusing on the downward bias to current BCA segment expectations. Upon final review monthly aircraft delivery reports, the recent commentary provided by airline industry executives, and feedback collected from the aerospace supply channel, we still see near-term earnings shortfall risk over the next 2-3 quarters and expect the executive management team to temper commercial aircraft delivery expectations for CY22 Continue reading

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Boeing Company (BA): Communicating A More Conservative 787 Production Recovery Timeline; But Talking Up 777

By Chris D. Olin Published on December 20, 2021 at 8:31 AM

We updated The Boeing Company (BA) model today, reacting to some of the information/thoughts shared by industry contacts following a supplier conference call held late last week. Bottom-line, while the management team formally pushed out 787 aircraft recovery expectations by roughly 6-7 months (as expected), the net-change to the production schedule did not reach worst-case scenario levels that had been speculated by certain company executives. This, combined with a modestly improved 777 program outlooks, resulted in a slight increase to our CY22-23 estimates. Continue reading

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Tale of the Tape: General Electric Versus Rolls-Royce

By Chris D. Olin Published on August 16, 2021 at 1:37 AM

A pre-fight company comparison between General Electric (GE) and Roll-Royce (RR), including global market analysis supported by the release of new industry data points, collection of channel insights, and future commercial aircraft build rates confirmed our underlying view regarding the relative strength in GE/CFM demand and the aircraft/engine programs driving the optimistic production and aftermarket services outlook. While Rolls-Royce recently issued multi-year jet engine production schedules to their global suppliers that included downward revisions, the GE procurement team seems to be reiterating optimism and upward bias to CY22-23 expectations. We still expect the aggressive production outlook to culminate into a surge in parts and materials sourcing. Continue reading

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