Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Raising Estimates On Projected Aerospace Demand Strength; New LEAP Outlook

By Chris D. Olin Published on July 13, 2021 at 8:49 AM

We are increasing Allegheny Technologies (ATI) estimates to account for an increasingly favorable commercial aerospace sales outlook, better-than-expected specialty materials survey results and upward movement in product pricing. After adjusting for the new production schedules shared by jet engine manufacturers and rising single-aisle aircraft build rate assumptions, the company appears to be on-track to generate $1.05-1.10/share of earnings by CY23 on stronger mill volumes and favorable premium forge sales contribution. Continue reading

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Buzzing The Tower: Late-June Update

By Chris D. Olin Published on June 28, 2021 at 11:43 AM

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower – A high-speed flyby fully armed with research note summaries, a sampling of interesting quotes collected from the channel, and industry headlines that can be enjoyed with a morning coffee. Continue reading

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The Boeing Company (BA): Expect A Bumpy Path To Earnings Recovery; Lowering Estimates

By Chris D. Olin Published on June 23, 2021 at 7:32 AM

We are lowering estimates on The Boeing Company (BA) to account for the approaching commercial aircraft segment shortfall. We expect total deliveries to fall about twenty jets below 2Q21 forecasts as another FAA inquiry has resulted in a 787-customer shipment halt, which translates into roughly $0.50/share of near-term earnings dilution in our model. Presumably, consensus expectations will reset following the company issuance of another disappointing monthly aircraft delivery report in early July. Continue reading

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