Supplier Intelligence

In this Flash Note, we provide an immediate reaction to the update commercial aircraft production schedule issued by the Airbus management team earlier today, including: modeling implications; the most impacted suppliers; and other bearish headlines that could soon follow. Continue reading

Ahead of the quarterly updates set to be released by several aerospace-levered companies over the next few weeks, and the swearing-in of President Joe Biden, we are submitting our Aerospace Flight Plan For 2021, broadly defined as an industry preview and data point refresher. The intention of this report is to provide a simple listing of industry headlines expected to materialize over the next twelve months that could sway investor sentiment or become a catalyst for estimate revisions on individual companies. We sat down over the weekend and updated our industry models to fully reflect our increasing conservative macro-outlook and to match some of the new data points provided by channel contacts. Continue reading

We are still picking up indications of strength throughout the steel channels and there appears to be increasing probability of upward movement in spot market prices (looking out 3-4 quarters). HRC prices are hitting the highest point in 12 years on supply constraints, heading into a normally seasonal-slow demand period. Continue reading

The one most positive comment we can offer on the global titanium market is that it does not look like the quarterly survey results could get any worse (when compared to the 3Q20 update). Continue reading