Recent Posts

Specialty Materials: The PCC-SPMC Restructuring Effort Is Creating Quite A Nickel-Alloy Mess

We are hearing a lot of noise in the nickel-based alloys channel. Over the past few weeks, industry contacts: expressed new concerns about premium alloy supply shortages; have become even more frustrated with the domestic suppliers, notably PCP; and told us to brace for a crazy period of industry headlines and M&A. Our focus shifted to new PCP insights and confirmation of internal restructuring efforts. Continue reading

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9:08 PM

Specialty Materials: Filling In The Research Holes; Channel Focus On Titanium Supply Holes

You bet your afterburners the Tier4 Research team skipped a week of vacation for more time to explore the specialty materials channel and analyze unexpected data points. Our objective was filling holes left from last week, confirming contact expectations, and achieving a better understanding of possible supply scenarios or reason(s) behind a possible merger. We came away from a several contact discussions more convinced that changes are imminent within the titanium industry that should lead to a restart of idled upstream capacity located in the US. Now, we wait for the release of potential headlines (or game changing events)… Continue reading

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7:46 AM

Specialty Materials: Titanium Prices Moving Higher But Rising Input Costs Could Limit Margin Opportunity

We are focused on the visible titanium channel strength and recent surge in spot prices for all semi-finished and finished mill product groups. The combination of volume strength, higher price points and favorable contract resets should facilitate solid top-line growth for this business and the premium alloys group. That said, we see incremental margin risk associated with upward titanium scrap price movement and preliminary outlook for CY23 sponge contracts. Our analysis of the titanium market data suggests ATI Incorporated (ATI) may need to reconsider restarting one of the idled sponge-making facilities. Continue reading

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5:32 AM

Specialty Materials: Highlighting Unexpected Titanium Market Strength

We updated our titanium market forecasts to account for better-than-expected survey results and positive macro events. Changes to the model include: upward global demand growth revisions for CY22; increased spot market pricing assumptions; and expected market share gains for titanium suppliers based in North America. Bottom-line, titanium could become a bright spot for the highly-levered names ahead of expectations, potential driving accelerated top-line growth for peers like Allegheny Technologies (ATI) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM). Continue reading

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5:21 AM

Specialty Materials: The Premium Alloy Market Thrusters Kicked In…

Companies levered to premium alloy and specialty stainless production/fabrication look increasingly likely to meet/beat near-term expectations on top-line growth strength and margin expansion. This morning, we highlight the incremental channel strength evident for key product groups, like nickel-based alloys, which should drive results for the specialty materials peer group over the next few quarters, simultaneously setting up longer-term opportunities associated with contract renewals (at higher price levels). Continue reading

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4:38 AM

Specialty Materials: Boeing Moves Away From Russian-Based Titanium Supply

Recent channel intelligence involving a formal Boeing Company (BA) decision to sever ties with Russian titanium supplier, VSMPO-Avisma, should be considered a positive development for the specialty materials group. Presumably, all three domestic producers will eventually become beneficiaries of the redistribution of titanium mill supply contracts and associated forging services. Beyond the direct revenue benefit, the eventual confirmation of this unexpected industry event could also serve as the next major spot market catalyst. Continue reading

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11:56 PM

Specialty Materials: A Closer Look At Titanium Market Share – With Updated Analysis

Industry contacts confirm increased dialogue between mills/fabricators and major aerospace companies concerned about titanium supply. Responding to a worsening Ukrainian situation and limited Russian supply visibility, OEMs and jet engine manufacturers are actively exploring alternative supply options for future demand. Redistribution of aerospace market share and renewed focus on M&A could trigger renewed investor interest. Continue reading

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5:01 AM

Specialty Materials: A Tale Of Two Alloys – A Review Of Quarterly Survey Results And Market Trends

We collected several data points throughout the specialty materials survey process but could not confidently identify a main theme for this update report. Channel crosscurrents, a less-aggressive aerospace outlook, and modest erosion in contact sentiment could be interpreted as mixed-to-negative indicators for the entire peer group heading into the 4Q earnings period. We are not expecting many companies within our coverage universe to meet/beat near-term expectations, but there are still a few names worth holding through any period of market turbulence, including the upstream alloy producers that appear to be positioned to take market share in CY22. Continue reading

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4:37 AM

Specialty Materials: Highlights From Quarterly Channel Checks

Despite recent negative headlines regarding a disruption in 787 aircraft production, we are sticking with a bullish thesis on the specialty materials group following a review of better-than-expected quarterly survey results. Communications with industry contacts confirmed much stronger demand/pricing trends in 2Q21, improving channel sentiment and upward forecast revisions, approaching catalysts, and more manageable inventory situations. Key data points collected over the past few months suggest there is an upward bias to consensus forecasts (looking out 3-4 quarters), with emphasis placed on companies levered to jet engine OEM demand and the premium alloy product categories (nickel-based alloys, cobalt-alloys, and specialty stainless steel). Continue reading

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5:06 AM

Specialty Materials: Increasing Our Titanium Industry Demand Projections For The First Time In 2-3 Years

Now there are two reasons for all of us to be excited about the summer: (1) Top Gun 2 will be in your local theaters on July 2; and (2) there now seems to be a light at the end of the titanium tunnel! This week, we formally increased our five-year ti industry forecasts to fully account for an improving aerospace outlook and better-than-expected survey results in May. While the underlying demand environment remains depressed in 1H22, nearing the lowest point since 2003-2004, there are hints of stabilization… Continue reading

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5:07 AM

The Titanium Snapshot (ATI, HAYN, CRS)

We are not picking up any new market intelligence this month to suggest there is an upward bias to earnings expectations for the specialty materials peer group. Last month, we raised near-term forecasts to reflect the better-than-expected nickel-based alloy and jet engine demand trends. However, we see few similarities in the titanium space as volume growth is holding in negative territory and contacts are still forecasting negative full-year growth. The main difference between this market and other alloys is the excess inventory held by the aero supply chain which could push the recovery starting point 6-9 months to the right (for companies levered to commercial airframe applications). Continue reading

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10:45 AM

Specialty Materials: Increasing Estimates On The Premium Alloy Suppliers Levered To Jet Engine

Positive data points and contact commentary collected during quarterly checks on the specialty materials group serves as the key catalyst behind the upward estimate revisions we applied to certain names within our coverage universe. Today, we raised estimates on Allegheny Tech (ATI) and Haynes International (HAYN) to reflect the upward bias associated with enhanced aerospace and turbine sales exposure. Continue reading

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10:31 AM

The Titanium Snapshot – December Update

Feedback coming out of the specialty materials channel supports the bearish call we are making on the global titanium market and selected companies within the specialty materials peer group. Bottomline, raw material providers, mill contacts, metal distributors, fabricators, and premium forgers are all voicing concerns about an extended period of end-demand weakness, a difficult CY21 environment, operating inefficiencies, and destabilized pricing environment.

Names within in our coverage universe with titanium leverage include Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Carpenter Technology (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Continue reading

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2:10 PM
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