Macro Updates & Themes

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… Yikes! Trading days like yesterday are the reason Jester decided to retire early and begin his new career as a bounty hunter and the eventual antagonist to Douglass Quaid while he was on a Mars vacation. But we digress… Investors seem to be reacting to heightened concerns about an economic slowdown, trade tensions, and COVID-19 outbreaks, but we see opportunity. Given the renewed upstream aero channel strength, identification of potential catalysts, and survey data points, we would be inclined to start positions at these lower price points, focusing on companies tied to jet engine market, premium alloys, or stainless steel production (areas of survey strength). The top-of-mind names include General Electric (GE), Carpenter Tech (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Normally, we would blame an intern for another late release of the bi-monthly review, but this one is on Quato. The little guy insisted on jumping in one of our backpacks so he could wait in-line with us for Top Gun 2 movie tickets Continue reading

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower – A high-speed flyby fully armed with research note summaries, a sampling of interesting quotes collected from the channel, and industry headlines that can be enjoyed with a morning coffee. Continue reading

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… A high-speed flyby fully armed with research note summaries, a sampling of interesting quotes collected from the channel, and industry headlines that can be enjoyed with a morning coffee. Admittedly, we deployed the initial review later than planned and Viper is incensed. We had a minor setback after getting caught in Iceman’s jet wash again, but that will never happen again-again. Going forward, we plan to release a new update near the start of every other weekend and then hop into some blue jeans for another beach volleyball match… Continue reading

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower – A high-speed flyby fully armed with research note summaries, a sampling of interesting quotes collected from the channel, and industry headlines that can be enjoyed with a morning coffee. Admittedly, we deployed the initial review later than planned and Viper is incensed. We had a minor setback after getting caught in Iceman’s jet wash again, but that will never happen again. Going forward, we plan to release a new update near the start of every other weekend and then hop into some blue jeans for another beach volleyball match… Continue reading

There has been an unusual amount of channel noise and head fakes since early 4Q20. Our surveys seem to be picking up several crosscurrents that have created some confusion or made it slightly more difficult to identify underlying macro themes. That said, we are currently focused on three March developments that could ultimately impact market forecasts and forward-looking company estimates: (1) The Tier4 Macro Sentiment Index strengthened over the past two months and channel confidence seems to be hitting a point just shy of the pre-COVID level; (2) We expect carbon steel prices to bounce in April/May; and (3) Recent headlines do not read well for the aerospace industry or aircraft future production schedules Continue reading

Apologies for the late issuance of your Monday Rundown, but the entire Tier4 Research team has been dragging all day, slowly recovering from another night Tomfoolery, but this time fully engaged and rocking another Cleveland Browns victory. Continue reading