Recent Posts

Steeling The Signals: December Update

Broad-based indications of strength are evident throughout the steel channels and there appears to be increasing probability of upward movement in spot market prices (looking out 3-4 quarters). The contact narrative shifted to the unusual carbon sheet and plate supply constraints, heading into a normally seasonal-slow demand period, and future production deficit anxieties.
Nucor Corporation (NUE) issued earnings outlook that may be considered disappointing by The Street. Management provided a 4Q20 EPS guidance range of $1.02-1.07. The language within this morning’s release regarding Steel Mill trends aligns with the feedback collected from our checks. We also heard from Steel Dynamics (STLD) today, which issued an adjusted 4Q20 guidance range of $0.80-0.84, beating expectations. Continue reading

Read More »
12:43 PM

Steel: Demand Strength Justifies Increase Attempt, But Supply Is Coming – Oh Dear…Born

There appears to be early support for the latest mill price increase attempt on carbon sheet. After reviewing some of the signals coming out of the steel channel this week, we expect at least one-half of the attempted +$40/ton spot adjustment to stick. For the first time since January, our survey is showing a real demand push, in addition to the modest customer sourcing panic developing in the MW region. Continue reading

Read More »
9:00 AM

Steel: Mill Prices Are Falling; Lowering Forecasts On Excess Supply Risk

The carbon steel price retreat started a bit earlier than we expected. Mill quotes for the benchmark HRC product dropped below $500/ton, which should be considered another red flag for the steel mini-mills heading into the 2Q earnings reports. Against the backdrop of weak demand and the lack of buyer urgency, domestic producers are reacting to early restart(s) of previously-idled production capacity. The downturn in pricing seems to be more pronounced across the flat rolled categories. Continue reading

Read More »
9:06 AM
View All Reports