Positive data points and contact commentary collected during quarterly checks on the specialty materials group serves as the key catalyst behind the upward estimate revisions we applied to certain names within our coverage universe. Today, we raised estimates on Allegheny Tech (ATI) and Haynes International (HAYN) to reflect the upward bias associated with enhanced aerospace and turbine sales exposure. Continue reading
Haynes International (HAYN): Another Weak Report But An Inflection Point May Finally Be On The Radar (Recap)
The HAYN management team is echoing a similar sentiment as most of its direct competitors: While most of the operating results reported this month have been underwhelming and CY21 earnings expectations are generally subdued, the specialty materials peer group seems to be approaching a point of stabilization. Companies levered to the premium alloys expect an inflection point to develop within the next 2-3 quarters with the titanium turn seen lagging by 1-2 quarters. Continue reading
We updated the Haynes International (HAYN) model ahead of the FY1Q earnings report, set for later this week. We have been holding a neutral position on the shares, but our bias leans negative following the collection of weak survey data points and subdued contact feedback. Continue reading
Feedback coming out of the specialty materials channel supports the bearish call we are making on the global titanium market and selected companies within the specialty materials peer group. Bottomline, raw material providers, mill contacts, metal distributors, fabricators, and premium forgers are all voicing concerns about an extended period of end-demand weakness, a difficult CY21 environment, operating inefficiencies, and destabilized pricing environment.
Names within in our coverage universe with titanium leverage include Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Carpenter Technology (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Continue reading
Haynes International (HAYN): We Are Not Ready To Clear The Shares For Takeoff; Initiating Coverage With A HOLD
Today, we are formally initiating coverage on Haynes International (HAYN) with a HOLD rating. While we certainly understand the initial exuberance around the aerospace suppliers and specialty materials peer group, following Monday’s vaccination news, we caution investors that underlying fundamentals are still quite weak. We prefer to wait for evidence of better titanium and nickel-based alloy trends before turning more constructive on this company or the peer group. Continue reading