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Wednesday August 3, 2022, 06:16:29

Aerospace: Airbus Provides New Production Schedule To Major Suppliers (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

We expect minimal supply chain fallout following the production audible called by Airbus last week. Adjustments to the master schedule appear to be fairly modest, while more importantly, the management team is holding to its aggressive long-term single-aisle aircraft production strategy. We also believe lost A320 volume could be partially offset by upward movement in wide-body build rates given recently collected channel intel. Bottomline, the updated Airbus production forecasts account for: the conservative corporate guidance; details included in the aircraft program update; and other updates/commentary offered by aerospace industry bellwethers. Continue reading

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Thursday July 21, 2022, 12:37:22

Aerospace: Updating The Boeing Model Ahead Of The Quarterly Earnings Report (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

We are raising earnings forecasts for Boeing Company ahead of the quarterly report (scheduled for next Wednesday) following the better-than-expected commercial aircraft delivery report for June. Despite our relatively subdued 2H sales/margin outlook and limited 737 production visibility, we still anticipate continuation of the positive trading momentum and improving channel sentiment, following: a successful Farnborough Air Show, upbeat commentary provided by the management team, and the issuance of regulatory approval for the resumption of 787 aircraft deliveries. Continue reading

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Monday March 7, 2022, 05:04:07

Specialty Materials Group: Boeing Moves Away From Russian-Based Titanium Supply

By Chris D. Olin

Recent channel intelligence involving the formal Boeing Company decision to sever ties with its Russian titanium supplier, VSMPO-Avisma, should be considered a positive development for the specialty materials group. Presumably, all three domestic producers will eventually become beneficiaries of redistributed of titanium mill supply contracts and associated forging services. Beyond the direct revenue benefit expected for Allegheny Technologies, Howmet Aerospace, and PCC-Timet, the eventual confirmation of this unexpected industry event could also serve as the next major spot market catalyst. Continue reading

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Friday February 25, 2022, 08:58:21

T4 Aero: Initial Look At The Boeing Procurement Risk Following Russian Invasion Of The Ukraine

By Chris D. Olin

There does not appear to be immediate alloy sourcing risk for The Boeing Company related to the changing Ukraine situation. While Russian supplier, VSMPO-Avisma, represents a large portion of the annual titanium requirement, our updated analysis suggests Boeing should be somewhat protected this year given the excess inventory on hand along with domestic melt availability. That said, we proactively lowered CY22 aircraft delivery and production forecasts today to reflect a six-month push-out of aerospace recovery assumptions, focusing on a less-certain macro environment, timing on Dreamliner recertification, and supply chain constraints. Continue reading

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