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Thursday September 8, 2022, 00:35:00

Specialty Mtls: The PCC-SPMC Restructuring Effort Is Creating Quite A Nickel-Alloy Mess (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

Maverick’s Call: We are hearing a lot of noise in the nickel-based alloys channel. Over the past few weeks, industry contacts: expressed new concerns about premium alloy supply shortages; have become even more frustrated with the domestic suppliers, notably PCP; and told us to brace for a crazy period of industry headlines and M&A. Our focus shifted to new PCP insights and confirmation of internal restructuring efforts. Continue reading

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Wednesday August 3, 2022, 06:16:29

Aerospace: Airbus Provides New Production Schedule To Major Suppliers (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

We expect minimal supply chain fallout following the production audible called by Airbus last week. Adjustments to the master schedule appear to be fairly modest, while more importantly, the management team is holding to its aggressive long-term single-aisle aircraft production strategy. We also believe lost A320 volume could be partially offset by upward movement in wide-body build rates given recently collected channel intel. Bottomline, the updated Airbus production forecasts account for: the conservative corporate guidance; details included in the aircraft program update; and other updates/commentary offered by aerospace industry bellwethers. Continue reading

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Wednesday July 27, 2022, 11:08:38

Buzzing The Tower: Monthly Review Of Research Notes, Channel Feedback, and Noteworthy Headlines (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… A high-speed fly-by fully armed with research note summaries, select quotes from the channel, and review of industry headlines – all of which can be enjoyed with a morning coffee! Needless to say, the Tier4 Research team has been riding on Cloud-Mach-10 this month, feeling cool/confident following: the after the release of my blockbuster movie sequel (and future MTV Movie Award Nom); an unexpected fourth place Uno tournament finish for our underachieving group of interns (followed with a celebration dinner at Ponderosa), and completion of a solid month of survey work and market analysis. Continue reading

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Thursday July 21, 2022, 12:37:22

Aerospace: Updating The Boeing Model Ahead Of The Quarterly Earnings Report (T4)

By Chris D. Olin

We are raising earnings forecasts for Boeing Company ahead of the quarterly report (scheduled for next Wednesday) following the better-than-expected commercial aircraft delivery report for June. Despite our relatively subdued 2H sales/margin outlook and limited 737 production visibility, we still anticipate continuation of the positive trading momentum and improving channel sentiment, following: a successful Farnborough Air Show, upbeat commentary provided by the management team, and the issuance of regulatory approval for the resumption of 787 aircraft deliveries. Continue reading

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