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Thursday September 15, 2022, 01:01:29

Tale Of The Tape: Carpenter Technology Versus Haynes International

By Chris D. Olin

Hello Fight Fans! Welcome to another “Tale of the Tape.” A unique report best described as another way for Tier4 Research to highlight areas of change, identified by proprietary channel checks, with a fresh look at the potential winners/losers selected from various peer groups. Today’s research undercard focuses on specialty materials, an underfollowed space exhibiting healthy trends and sequentially stronger survey data points. Do not be fooled. We are not talking about titanium, the product group that monopolized our research time and energy last month. This time we investigated the surprising nickel-based alloy market strength and bullish feedback offered by industry contacts in recent days. Companies within our coverage universe levered to upstream production seem ripe for outperformance and upward estimate revisions on robust demand/pricing undercurrents and incremental volume opportunities tied to PCC market share spillage. With that introduction out of the way, we are excited for the main bout which features two STRONG BUY rated contenders vying for the title of TOP PICK: Carpenter Technology (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Continue reading

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Thursday August 11, 2022, 17:01:01

Hot Take: We Sense A Great Disturbance In the Specialty Materials Space

By Chris D. Olin

A series of market tremors and immediate channel reaction this week led us to believe some type of major shake-up could be developing in the specialty materials space. In our 20+ years of coverage, we can comfortably say this may have been the noisiest day on record for titanium and our fearless research leader. We heard from several company executives positioned in the raw materials channel, premium alloy fabrication or forging subgroup, and titanium distribution complaining, in one form or another, about unusual mill actions: Continue reading

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Wednesday July 27, 2022, 07:51:22

Buzzing The Tower: Monthly Review Of Research Notes, Channel Feedback, and Noteworthy Headlines

By Chris D. Olin

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… A high-speed fly-by fully armed with research note summaries, select quotes from the channel, and review of industry headlines – all of which can be enjoyed with a morning coffee! Needless to say, the Tier4 Research team has been riding on Cloud-Mach-10 this month, feeling cool/confident following: the after the release of my blockbuster movie sequel (and future MTV Movie Award Nom); an unexpected fourth place Uno tournament finish for our underachieving group of interns (followed with a celebration dinner at Ponderosa), and completion of a solid month of survey work and market analysis. Continue reading

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Tuesday February 15, 2022, 18:10:34

Super Bold Predictions For 2022

By Chris D. Olin

We anticipate the emergence of four headlines/topics at some point in the current year, resulting in a Street review of both industry and individual company modeling assumptions. Selection of the Super Bold Predictions for CY22 followed: a complete review of recent survey data points (and anecdotal feedback provided by contacts), the full consideration of major industry news events, and conversations with intuition. We handicapped the probability of each event occurring at +50-60% (or more), with broad implications for the entire aerospace channel, certain products/alloys, or individual companies tracked within our coverage universe. Continue reading

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