Thursday November 17, 2022, 19:55:52
By Chris D. Olin
Titanium prices are expected to trend higher over the next few months as the global producers account for rising input costs (e.g., surcharge escalators) and leverage created by extended lead times. Today, we increased the benchmark pricing assumptions for CY23 which aligns with data collected from the channel and updated sponge cost outlook. The companies levered to the titanium market should eventually benefit from increased product pricing, reset contracts, favorable mix shift, increased shipments, ultimately leading to strong results next year. However, price elasticity may become a topic that emerges at some point this up-cycle, punctuated by reports of commercial aircraft redesigns. Continue reading
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Wednesday September 7, 2022, 21:08:45
By Chris D. Olin
We are hearing a lot of noise in the nickel-based alloys channel. Over the past few weeks, industry contacts: expressed new concerns about premium alloy supply shortages; have become even more frustrated with the domestic suppliers, notably PCP; and told us to brace for a crazy period of industry headlines and M&A. Our focus shifted to new PCP insights and confirmation of internal restructuring efforts. Continue reading
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Thursday August 18, 2022, 07:46:33
By Chris D. Olin
You bet your afterburners the Tier4 Research team skipped a week of vacation for more time to explore the specialty materials channel and analyze unexpected data points. Our objective was filling holes left from last week, confirming contact expectations, and achieving a better understanding of possible supply scenarios or reason(s) behind a possible merger. We came away from a several contact discussions more convinced that changes are imminent within the titanium industry that should lead to a restart of idled upstream capacity located in the US. Now, we wait for the release of potential headlines (or game changing events)… Continue reading
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Tuesday July 12, 2022, 05:32:27
By Chris D. Olin
We are focused on the visible titanium channel strength and recent surge in spot prices for all semi-finished and finished mill product groups. The combination of volume strength, higher price points and favorable contract resets should facilitate solid top-line growth for this business and the premium alloys group. That said, we see incremental margin risk associated with upward titanium scrap price movement and preliminary outlook for CY23 sponge contracts. Our analysis of the titanium market data suggests ATI Incorporated (ATI) may need to reconsider restarting one of the idled sponge-making facilities. Continue reading
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