Tuesday July 12, 2022, 05:32:27
By Chris D. Olin
We are focused on the visible titanium channel strength and recent surge in spot prices for all semi-finished and finished mill product groups. The combination of volume strength, higher price points and favorable contract resets should facilitate solid top-line growth for this business and the premium alloys group. That said, we see incremental margin risk associated with upward titanium scrap price movement and preliminary outlook for CY23 sponge contracts. Our analysis of the titanium market data suggests ATI Incorporated (ATI) may need to reconsider restarting one of the idled sponge-making facilities. Continue reading
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Thursday June 16, 2022, 05:21:53
By Chris D. Olin
We updated our titanium market forecasts to account for better-than-expected survey results and positive macro events. Changes to the model include: upward global demand growth revisions for CY22; increased spot market pricing assumptions; and expected market share gains for titanium suppliers based in North America. Bottom-line, titanium could become a bright spot for the highly-levered names ahead of expectations, potential driving accelerated top-line growth for peers like Allegheny Technologies (ATI) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM). Continue reading
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Wednesday April 13, 2022, 04:38:36
By Chris D. Olin
Companies levered to premium alloy and specialty stainless production/fabrication look increasingly likely to meet/beat near-term expectations on top-line growth strength and margin expansion. This morning, we highlight the incremental channel strength evident for key product groups, like nickel-based alloys, which should drive results for the specialty materials peer group over the next few quarters, simultaneously setting up longer-term opportunities associated with contract renewals (at higher price levels). Continue reading
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Sunday March 6, 2022, 23:56:53
By Chris D. Olin
Recent channel intelligence involving a formal Boeing Company (BA) decision to sever ties with Russian titanium supplier, VSMPO-Avisma, should be considered a positive development for the specialty materials group. Presumably, all three domestic producers will eventually become beneficiaries of the redistribution of titanium mill supply contracts and associated forging services. Beyond the direct revenue benefit, the eventual confirmation of this unexpected industry event could also serve as the next major spot market catalyst. Continue reading
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