Wednesday July 22, 2020, 09:00:12

Steel: Demand Strength Justifies Increase Attempt, But Supply Is Coming – Oh Dear…Born

By Chris D. Olin

There appears to be early support for the latest mill price increase attempt on carbon sheet. After reviewing some of the signals coming out of the steel channel this week, we expect at least one-half of the attempted +$40/ton spot adjustment to stick. For the first time since January, our survey is showing a real demand push, in addition to the modest customer sourcing panic developing in the MW region. Continue reading

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Thursday July 16, 2020, 09:00:58

The Boeing Company (BA): Updated Thesis ~ Part Deux ~ Downgrade To SELL

By Chris D. Olin

We are downgrading the shares of The Boeing Company (BA) to a SELL recommendation with a revised twelve-month target price of $132 (30% below yesterday’s close), following a final verification of a destabilized aerospace channel environment and rapidly falling contact expectations (looking out two years). Continue reading

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Friday June 26, 2020, 09:06:34

Steel: Mill Prices Are Falling; Lowering Forecasts On Excess Supply Risk

By Chris D. Olin

The carbon steel price retreat started a bit earlier than we expected. Mill quotes for the benchmark HRC product dropped below $500/ton, which should be considered another red flag for the steel mini-mills heading into the 2Q earnings reports. Against the backdrop of weak demand and the lack of buyer urgency, domestic producers are reacting to early restart(s) of previously-idled production capacity. The downturn in pricing seems to be more pronounced across the flat rolled categories. Continue reading

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