Friday July 16, 2021, 05:06:46

Specialty Materials: Highlights From Quarterly Channel Checks

By Chris D. Olin

Despite recent negative headlines regarding a disruption in 787 aircraft production, we are sticking with a bullish thesis on the specialty materials group following a review of better-than-expected quarterly survey results. Communications with industry contacts confirmed much stronger demand/pricing trends in 2Q21, improving channel sentiment and upward forecast revisions, approaching catalysts, and more manageable inventory situations. Key data points collected over the past few months suggest there is an upward bias to consensus forecasts (looking out 3-4 quarters), with emphasis placed on companies levered to jet engine OEM demand and the premium alloy product categories (nickel-based alloys, cobalt-alloys, and specialty stainless steel). Continue reading

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Thursday May 27, 2021, 05:07:04

Specialty Materials: Increasing Our Titanium Industry Demand Projections For The First Time In 2-3 Years

By Chris D. Olin

Now there are two reasons for all of us to be excited about the summer: (1) Top Gun 2 will be in your local theaters on July 2; and (2) there now seems to be a light at the end of the titanium tunnel! This week, we formally increased our five-year ti industry forecasts to fully account for an improving aerospace outlook and better-than-expected survey results in May. While the underlying demand environment remains depressed in 1H22, nearing the lowest point since 2003-2004, there are hints of stabilization… Continue reading

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Monday May 17, 2021, 06:53:14

Aerospace: Suppliers Are Reacting To The New LEAP Production Targets

By Chris D. Olin

General Electric (GE) held a conference call with its major suppliers to review all details behind the newly implemented LEAP production schedule and to ensure supply chain alertness. Last week, the company effectively raised the CY22 production outlook to 360-370 engines to account for stronger single-aisle aircraft build rates. This was the third major scheduling adjustment announced by the aircraft OEMs and jet engine suppliers, which suggests an upward bias to CY22-23 expectations for the coverage group. Continue reading

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