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Wednesday August 3, 2022, 02:34:18

Aerospace: Airbus Provides New Production Schedule To Major Suppliers

By Chris D. Olin

We expect minimal supply chain fallout following the production audible called by Airbus last week. Adjustments to the master schedule appear to be fairly modest, while more importantly, the management team is holding to its aggressive long-term single-aisle aircraft production strategy. We also believe lost A320 volume could be partially offset by upward movement in wide-body build rates given recently collected channel intel. Bottomline, the updated Airbus production forecasts account for: the conservative corporate guidance; details included in the aircraft program update; and other updates/commentary offered by aerospace industry bellwethers. Continue reading

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Friday July 8, 2022, 06:48:59

Aerospace: Airbus Is Sticking With Its Aggressive Aircraft Production Strategy

By Chris D. Olin

Airbus recently sent updated commercial aircraft product schedules to all major suppliers that may contain information likely to become a much-needed catalyst for the aerospace peer group. Contrary to the negative quarterly updates issued by companies levered to aerospace or other industries, the Airbus outlook appears to be holding (for the year and beyond). Surprisingly, the management team refrained from lowering build rate targets to account for macro weakness or global supply chain bottlenecks Continue reading

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Thursday February 17, 2022, 09:45:10

AERO: Notes From The Airbus Conference Call

By Chris D. Olin

Airbus reported 611 total aircraft deliveries for CY21 (+45 jets versus prior year totals), which the surpassed the full-year outlook of 600 on single-aisle demand strength. The full-year breakdown delivery breakdown was: 50 A220s; 483 A320s; 55 A350s; 18 A330s; and 5 A380s. Despite the outperformance, management provided a slightly conservative delivery forecast on 720 jets for CY22 (+18% y/y), Continue reading

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Wednesday February 9, 2022, 16:43:45

Aerospace: The Tailwind May Be Closer Than Expected; Updated Aircraft Production Forecasts

By Chris D. Olin

The upstream aerospace supply group appears to be entering an accelerated top-line growth environment primarily driven by single-aisle aircraft parts/materials demand strength. Based on the updated commercial aircraft production forecasts applied to the OEMs, combined with modest inventory overhang adjustment, we now project +19-20% baseline aerospace-related sales growth for the tier-4 global supply chain in CY22 and +15-16% growth in CY23. We expect the material providers and forgers within our coverage universe to realize the benefits of the market tailwinds by 2H22 (if not earlier). Continue reading

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