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Tuesday October 4, 2022, 14:19:14

Aerospace: What Comes Down, Must Go Way Up Later? Updated Macro Outlook

By Chris D. Olin

We tried to account for the newly identified industry data points and unusual crosscurrent of positive/negative comments provided by aerospace bellwether company executives and high-level industry contacts. Bottomline, we see incremental downside to near-term market expectations on headwinds associated with commercial aircraft delivery delays, supply chain instability/bottlenecks, and shortage of jet engines. Yet, longer-term market confidence seems to be building and the corporate outlooks are moving in the opposite direction, providing support to peak aerospace market bullishness. This update: (1) provides readers a summary of changes made to the macromodel and reviews the main drivers behind the revised five-year aircraft delivery/production outlook for Boeing and Airbus; (2) alert readers to details embedded within production schedules recently issued by OEMs and General Electric (GE), with emphasis placed on the Dreamliner recovery strategy; and (3) concludes with highlights taken from a unique aero supplier survey that focused on contact opinions pertaining to current OEM believability and supply chain readiness. Continue reading

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Wednesday August 3, 2022, 02:34:18

Aerospace: Airbus Provides New Production Schedule To Major Suppliers

By Chris D. Olin

We expect minimal supply chain fallout following the production audible called by Airbus last week. Adjustments to the master schedule appear to be fairly modest, while more importantly, the management team is holding to its aggressive long-term single-aisle aircraft production strategy. We also believe lost A320 volume could be partially offset by upward movement in wide-body build rates given recently collected channel intel. Bottomline, the updated Airbus production forecasts account for: the conservative corporate guidance; details included in the aircraft program update; and other updates/commentary offered by aerospace industry bellwethers. Continue reading

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Friday July 8, 2022, 06:48:59

Aerospace: Airbus Is Sticking With Its Aggressive Aircraft Production Strategy

By Chris D. Olin

Airbus recently sent updated commercial aircraft product schedules to all major suppliers that may contain information likely to become a much-needed catalyst for the aerospace peer group. Contrary to the negative quarterly updates issued by companies levered to aerospace or other industries, the Airbus outlook appears to be holding (for the year and beyond). Surprisingly, the management team refrained from lowering build rate targets to account for macro weakness or global supply chain bottlenecks Continue reading

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Thursday February 17, 2022, 09:45:10

AERO: Notes From The Airbus Conference Call

By Chris D. Olin

Airbus reported 611 total aircraft deliveries for CY21 (+45 jets versus prior year totals), which the surpassed the full-year outlook of 600 on single-aisle demand strength. The full-year breakdown delivery breakdown was: 50 A220s; 483 A320s; 55 A350s; 18 A330s; and 5 A380s. Despite the outperformance, management provided a slightly conservative delivery forecast on 720 jets for CY22 (+18% y/y), Continue reading

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