Thursday September 16, 2021, 05:40:30

Titanium: Lowering Group Estimates On Disappointing Survey Results And Near-Term Aero Destabilization

By Chris D. Olin

Highlighting mixed-to-negative titanium survey reads and macro headlines over the past few weeks. At this point, our market intelligence and analysis indicate a slight downward bias to near-term earnings expectations for companies levered to titanium and other specialty alloys. Continue reading

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Friday July 16, 2021, 05:06:46

Specialty Materials: Highlights From Quarterly Channel Checks

By Chris D. Olin

Despite recent negative headlines regarding a disruption in 787 aircraft production, we are sticking with a bullish thesis on the specialty materials group following a review of better-than-expected quarterly survey results. Communications with industry contacts confirmed much stronger demand/pricing trends in 2Q21, improving channel sentiment and upward forecast revisions, approaching catalysts, and more manageable inventory situations. Key data points collected over the past few months suggest there is an upward bias to consensus forecasts (looking out 3-4 quarters), with emphasis placed on companies levered to jet engine OEM demand and the premium alloy product categories (nickel-based alloys, cobalt-alloys, and specialty stainless steel). Continue reading

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Thursday May 27, 2021, 05:07:04

Specialty Materials: Increasing Our Titanium Industry Demand Projections For The First Time In 2-3 Years

By Chris D. Olin

Now there are two reasons for all of us to be excited about the summer: (1) Top Gun 2 will be in your local theaters on July 2; and (2) there now seems to be a light at the end of the titanium tunnel! This week, we formally increased our five-year ti industry forecasts to fully account for an improving aerospace outlook and better-than-expected survey results in May. While the underlying demand environment remains depressed in 1H22, nearing the lowest point since 2003-2004, there are hints of stabilization… Continue reading

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