Friday November 19, 2021, 05:39:19

Aerospace: Updating Our Macro Assumptions Ahead Of New Industry Catalysts

By Chris D. Olin

After taking a closer look at aerospace market drivers, listening to the commentary provided by OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers, and collecting early market intel from proprietary survey-work, we remain comfortable with the bullish outlook applied the coverage group. We anticipate the realization of accelerated aero-related sales growth in CY22 for companies levered to aluminum, composite materials, specialty materials, and forging services driven by unit volume strength, better pricing/mix, and distribution channel refill. In today’ s market update, We lowered the CY22 earnings outlook for Hexcel (HXL) to account lost 787 revenues in 1H22. Continue reading

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Thursday September 16, 2021, 05:40:30

Titanium: Lowering Group Estimates On Disappointing Survey Results And Near-Term Aero Destabilization

By Chris D. Olin

Highlighting mixed-to-negative titanium survey reads and macro headlines over the past few weeks. At this point, our market intelligence and analysis indicate a slight downward bias to near-term earnings expectations for companies levered to titanium and other specialty alloys. Continue reading

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Friday June 4, 2021, 08:28:50

Aerospace: Upgrading Upstream Suppliers On Stronger Aero Sales Outlook And Potential Bottleneck Benefits

By Chris D. Olin

We are making a rotational call within the aerospace coverage group, now favoring upstream suppliers that appear to be positioned to benefit from a changing commercial aircraft production environment. The investor narrative may shift to the premium forgers and/or specialty materials providers earlier-than-expected as the supply chain readies for a sharp inflection in demand for 737MAX or A320neo applications, looking beyond negative near-term earnings expectations. As such, we are changing ratings on a few companies that fit into that description. Today, we are formally upgrading Hexcel Corporation (HXL) and Haynes International (HAYN) to Strong Buy investment ratings and moving Allegheny Technologies (ATI) over to Outperform. We had previously rated all three Hold. Continue reading

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