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Tuesday September 20, 2022, 06:26:23

The Boeing Company (BA): Storm Before The Calm – Lowering Estimates Ahead Of New Master...

By Chris D. Olin

The Boeing Company (BA) model was updated to account for slightly weaker-than-expected commercial aircraft deliveries and expected changes to 737 build rate increase targets over the next 18-24 months. We now forecast reduced 2H22 earnings potential for 2H22 after applying slightly more conservative BCA segment assumptions. However, the updated CY23-24 estimates remain firmly above consensus. Aircraft delivery projections were essentially pushed to the right due to supply chain factors but underlying demand for next-generation jets does not appear to be waning. Our positive thesis many have been confirmed last week after industry contacts shared some of the details expected to be included in new master production schedules. Continue reading

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Thursday September 15, 2022, 01:01:29

Tale Of The Tape: Carpenter Technology Versus Haynes International

By Chris D. Olin

Hello Fight Fans! Welcome to another “Tale of the Tape.” A unique report best described as another way for Tier4 Research to highlight areas of change, identified by proprietary channel checks, with a fresh look at the potential winners/losers selected from various peer groups. Today’s research undercard focuses on specialty materials, an underfollowed space exhibiting healthy trends and sequentially stronger survey data points. Do not be fooled. We are not talking about titanium, the product group that monopolized our research time and energy last month. This time we investigated the surprising nickel-based alloy market strength and bullish feedback offered by industry contacts in recent days. Companies within our coverage universe levered to upstream production seem ripe for outperformance and upward estimate revisions on robust demand/pricing undercurrents and incremental volume opportunities tied to PCC market share spillage. With that introduction out of the way, we are excited for the main bout which features two STRONG BUY rated contenders vying for the title of TOP PICK: Carpenter Technology (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Continue reading

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Sunday August 7, 2022, 06:16:22

ATI Incorporated (ATI): A Texas-Sized Earnings Beat With Side Of Raised EPS/FCF Guidance

By Chris D. Olin

We remain confident with the STRONG BUY investment rating on ATI Incorporated (ATI) following a review of the details collected from the quarterly earnings report and expected commercial aerospace market drivers. There do not appear to be very many holes in the ATI story right now, which should result in upward consensus estimate movement and increasingly bullish CY23-24 outlook. End-market drivers are strengthening, ATI improved contract share for several aerospace products, the balance sheet looks much healthier, and management execution has been solid. Continue reading

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Sunday July 31, 2022, 11:37:20

The Boeing Company (BA): The Story Is Slowly Coming Together; Quarterly Earnings Recap

By Chris D. Olin

The Boeing Company (BA) earnings update was generally in-line with expectations and investors seem comfortable with the updated corporate outlook (despite modestly negative 737 program commentary). The portfolio seems to be coming back together after three turbulent years. Going forward, we anticipate a shift in focus to the potential upward bias to medium-term earrings expectations given the: FAA recertification of the 787 aircraft; recovery in aero aftermarket demand (back to pre-COVID levels), slowly improving international airline travel situation (or wide-body delivery outlook) and improving management execution. Continue reading

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