S&P 500$4326.51-23.42-0.54%







Welcome To Tier4 Research:

Daily Trade - Winners/Losers:

Top Aerospace Movers - Trading Higher:

  • jblu$13.88+0.37+2.74%
  • gd$208.8+3.88+1.89%
  • snr£137.6+2.5+1.85%
  • ge$89.9+0.58+0.65%
  • alk$52.6+0.29+0.55%


Top Aerospace Movers - Trading Lower:

  • spr$41.33-1.96-4.53%
  • maxr$24.55-1.42-5.47%
  • spce$7.96-0.48-5.69%
  • txt$66.65-5.1-7.11%
  • tgi$17.27-1.46-7.79%


Top Metal Movers - Trading Higher:

  • ng$4.34+0.308+7.64%
  • nue$96.74+3.7+3.98%
  • rio£5569+124.96+2.3%
  • stld$54.34+1.22+2.3%
  • era€94.2+2.05+2.22%


Top Metal Movers - Trading Lower:

  • arnc$29.73-1.7-5.41%
  • cenx$15.51-0.97-5.89%
  • ryi$18.9-1.19-5.92%
  • hrc$1196-230-16.13%
  • hr$1196-230-16.13%


Individual Company Coverage:

Chris D. Olin

Boeing Company (BA): Lowering Estimates Ahead Of The CY4Q Earnings Update

We are lowering estimates on The Boeing Company (BA) ahead of the 4Q21 earnings release scheduled for Wednesday, January 26, focusing on the downward bias to current BCA segment expectations. Upon final review monthly aircraft delivery reports, the recent commentary provided by airline industry executives, and feedback collected from the aerospace supply channel, we still see near-term earnings shortfall risk over the next 2-3 quarters and expect the executive management team to temper commercial aircraft delivery expectations for CY22 Continue reading

Chris D. Olin

Specialty Materials: A Tale Of Two Alloys – A Review Of Quarterly Survey Results And Market Trends

We collected several data points throughout the specialty materials survey process but could not confidently identify a main theme for this update report. Channel crosscurrents, a less-aggressive aerospace outlook, and modest erosion in contact sentiment could be interpreted as mixed-to-negative indicators for the entire peer group heading into the 4Q earnings period. We are not expecting many companies within our coverage universe to meet/beat near-term expectations, but there are still a few names worth holding through any period of market turbulence, including the upstream alloy producers that appear to be positioned to take market share in CY22. Continue reading

Chris D. Olin

Carpenter Technology (CRS): The Grinch Came To Reading This Year; Downgrading Shares To Outperform

We are lowering Carpenter Technology (CRS) estimates to align with the cautious corporate guidance issued earlier in the week. Capping off a problematic six-month period, the management team attributed an unplanned forge press outage, inflationary pressures, and labor shortage issues to revised SAO expectations and a much lower FY2Q EPS outlook of ($0.60)-($0.65). Given the limited near-term earnings visibility and growing market share concerns, we are downgrading CRS to an Outperform rating (versus a Strong Buy). Continue reading

Chris D. Olin

Boeing Company (BA): Communicating A More Conservative 787 Production Recovery Timeline; But Talking Up 777

We updated The Boeing Company (BA) model today, reacting to some of the information/thoughts shared by industry contacts following a supplier conference call held late last week. Bottom-line, while the management team formally pushed out 787 aircraft recovery expectations by roughly 6-7 months (as expected), the net-change to the production schedule did not reach worst-case scenario levels that had been speculated by certain company executives. This, combined with a modestly improved 777 program outlooks, resulted in a slight increase to our CY22-23 estimates. Continue reading

Chris D. Olin

Boeing Company (BA): We See Increasing Risk To Commercial Aircraft Delivery and Production Forecasts

We are lowering estimates on The Boeing Company (BA) today to reflect lower commercial aircraft delivery assumptions and BCA margin contraction risk. Based on market intelligence collected from aerospace suppliers over the past few days, we believe there is increasing risk to the current 787 and 737 aircraft delivery/production forecasts, which could come into focus over the next few days. Continue reading

Chris D. Olin

Aero Suppliers: The Global Supply Chain Could Be Facing More Bad 787 News

Indications from our latest aerospace channel checks suggests additional downside risk for global suppliers levered to the B787 aircraft program. Industry contacts now report growing demand headwinds associated with extended Dreamliner assembly lines halts and have started to reset 1H22 top-line expectations due to a slower-than-expected production recovery. This morning, we lowered estimates for the main companies in our coverage group to align with more conservative B787 build rate assumptions for CY22.formal issuance of strong LEAP jet engine production guidance. Both items should be considered bullish data points for the specialty materials and upstream aero supply peer groups, and the main drivers behind accelerated top-line growth and strong earnings contribution over the next 2-3 years. Continue reading