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ATI Incorporated (ATI): A Texas-Sized Earnings Beat With Side Of Raised EPS/FCF Guidance

We remain confident with the STRONG BUY investment rating on ATI Incorporated (ATI) following a review of the details collected from the quarterly earnings report and expected commercial aerospace market drivers. There do not appear to be very many holes in the ATI story right now, which should result in upward consensus estimate movement and increasingly bullish CY23-24 outlook. End-market drivers are strengthening, ATI improved contract share for several aerospace products, the balance sheet looks much healthier, and management execution has been solid. Continue reading

Aerospace: Airbus Provides New Production Schedule To Major Suppliers

We expect minimal supply chain fallout following the production audible called by Airbus last week. Adjustments to the master schedule appear to be fairly modest, while more importantly, the management team is holding to its aggressive long-term single-aisle aircraft production strategy. We also believe lost A320 volume could be partially offset by upward movement in wide-body build rates given recently collected channel intel. Bottomline, the updated Airbus production forecasts account for: the conservative corporate guidance; details included in the aircraft program update; and other updates/commentary offered by aerospace industry bellwethers. Continue reading

The Boeing Company (BA): The Story Is Slowly Coming Together; Quarterly Earnings Recap

The Boeing Company (BA) earnings update was generally in-line with expectations and investors seem comfortable with the updated corporate outlook (despite modestly negative 737 program commentary). The portfolio seems to be coming back together after three turbulent years. Going forward, we anticipate a shift in focus to the potential upward bias to medium-term earrings expectations given the: FAA recertification of the 787 aircraft; recovery in aero aftermarket demand (back to pre-COVID levels), slowly improving international airline travel situation (or wide-body delivery outlook) and improving management execution. Continue reading

Buzzing The Tower: Monthly Review Of Research Notes, Channel Feedback, and Noteworthy Headlines

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… A high-speed fly-by fully armed with research note summaries, select quotes from the channel, and review of industry headlines – all of which can be enjoyed with a morning coffee! Needless to say, the Tier4 Research team has been riding on Cloud-Mach-10 this month, feeling cool/confident following: the after the release of my blockbuster movie sequel (and future MTV Movie Award Nom); an unexpected fourth place Uno tournament finish for our underachieving group of interns (followed with a celebration dinner at Ponderosa), and completion of a solid month of survey work and market analysis. Continue reading

The Boeing Company (BA): Good Momentum Heading To Next Week’s Quarterly Earnings Report

We are raising the 2Q22 earnings forecast for The Boeing Company (BA) ahead of the quarterly report (scheduled for next Wednesday) following the better-than-expected commercial aircraft delivery report for the month of June. Despite our relatively subdued 2H22 outlook and limited 737 production visibility, we still anticipate a continuation of the positive trading momentum for the rest of the month, following: a successful Farnborough Air Show, expected more upbeat commentary provided by the management team next week, and regulatory approval for the resumption of 787 aircraft deliveries. Continue reading