S&P 500$4410.63+56.44+1.3%

IO$119.01+2+1.71%

NI$19145+300+1.59%

HRC$193500%

SS$444+3.5+0.79%

CB$53056-4-0.01%

AL$2938.5+90.75+3.19%

Welcome To Tier4 Research:

Daily Trade - Winners/Losers:

Top Aerospace Movers - Trading Higher:

  • erj$16.06+0.76+4.97%
  • cvu$2.93+0.1335+4.77%
  • skyw$47.24+1.99+4.4%
  • spr$40.14+1.65+4.29%
  • tgi$18.1+0.74+4.26%

 

Top Aerospace Movers - Trading Lower:

  • fga€5.9400%
  • sol€-100%
  • iwj€-100%
  • fii€26.15-0.05-0.19%
  • lha€6.2-2.18-26.01%

 

Top Metal Movers - Trading Higher:

  • cenx$13.55+1.37+11.25%
  • ggb$4.78+0.255+5.64%
  • aa$48.15+2.55+5.59%
  • jcq€22.4+1.05+4.92%
  • lb$622.5+26.3+4.41%

 

Top Metal Movers - Trading Lower:

  • ql$34.0500%
  • wti$-100%
  • hrc$193500%
  • hayn$36.6700%
  • ng$4.76-0.055-1.14%

 

Individual Company Coverage:

Coverage Universe
Chris D. Olin

The Boeing Company (BA): Updated Scenario Analysis Based On Existing Commercial Aircraft Production Schedules

We updated The Boeing Company (BA) model to align with expected commercial aircraft deliveries and future production changes. Revised assumptions for the BCA segment resulted in a slightly lower earnings outlook for this year and CY22, with the primary negatives related to the 737 and 787 aircraft programs. Downward adjustments aside, we still believe the BA shares are attractively valued today, especially after completing our EPS upside analysis. Bottom-line, the core portfolio earnings power strengthens considerably (and the FCF generation) if the company can realize those aggressive aircraft production targets embedded in the latest schedules shared with the global supply chain. Continue reading

Coverage Universe
Chris D. Olin

Tale of the Tape: General Electric Versus Rolls-Royce

A pre-fight company comparison between General Electric (GE) and Roll-Royce (RR), including global market analysis supported by the release of new industry data points, collection of channel insights, and future commercial aircraft build rates confirmed our underlying view regarding the relative strength in GE/CFM demand and the aircraft/engine programs driving the optimistic production and aftermarket services outlook. While Rolls-Royce recently issued multi-year jet engine production schedules to their global suppliers that included downward revisions, the GE procurement team seems to be reiterating optimism and upward bias to CY22-23 expectations. We still expect the aggressive production outlook to culminate into a surge in parts and materials sourcing. Continue reading

Buzzing The Tower
Chris D. Olin

Buzzing The Tower: Mid-July Review

Tower… Requesting permission to release Buzzing The Tower… Yikes! Trading days like yesterday are the reason Jester decided to retire early and begin his new career as a bounty hunter and the eventual antagonist to Douglass Quaid while he was on a Mars vacation. But we digress… Investors seem to be reacting to heightened concerns about an economic slowdown, trade tensions, and COVID-19 outbreaks, but we see opportunity. Given the renewed upstream aero channel strength, identification of potential catalysts, and survey data points, we would be inclined to start positions at these lower price points, focusing on companies tied to jet engine market, premium alloys, or stainless steel production (areas of survey strength). The top-of-mind names include General Electric (GE), Carpenter Tech (CRS) and Haynes International (HAYN). Normally, we would blame an intern for another late release of the bi-monthly review, but this one is on Quato. The little guy insisted on jumping in one of our backpacks so he could wait in-line with us for Top Gun 2 movie tickets Continue reading

Coverage Universe
Chris D. Olin

Specialty Materials: Highlights From Quarterly Channel Checks

Despite recent negative headlines regarding a disruption in 787 aircraft production, we are sticking with a bullish thesis on the specialty materials group following a review of better-than-expected quarterly survey results. Communications with industry contacts confirmed much stronger demand/pricing trends in 2Q21, improving channel sentiment and upward forecast revisions, approaching catalysts, and more manageable inventory situations. Key data points collected over the past few months suggest there is an upward bias to consensus forecasts (looking out 3-4 quarters), with emphasis placed on companies levered to jet engine OEM demand and the premium alloy product categories (nickel-based alloys, cobalt-alloys, and specialty stainless steel). Continue reading